As readers of this blog know, I'm a retired actuary who can never resist numbers. Back in 2008 I was still making money as an actuary, so on the GSN board I decided to impress people by estimating the probability of winning WoF's new million dollar payout. As I recall, I came up with a 1/600 chance (with a lot of hand-waving).
So imagine my surprise when Michelle Loewenstein copped the million about a month after the offer started. My estimate was looking pretty poor, no? Then another couple of winners came along in 2013 and 2014, and my estimate still seemed out whack on the low side.
But then the winners stopped. We've now gone 1,950 eps over ten seasons with just those three lucky people. If you do the math, my estimate now looks pretty good, though it's a little on the high side.
Two obvious things. One, my estimate had a lot of air because I couldn't really pin down many of variables involved. And two, any estimate only applies to an infinite number of contestants playing the game an infinite number of times. Remember the monkeys on the typewriters producing King Lear?
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